Will Doji Reverse The 8 Month Downtrend?

here's an indicator that this major index may turn around soon. soon, in the context of a 10 year monthly chart. so, it's not tomorrow or next week, but the next successive 2-3 months ahead. by the time, it is clear that the DOJI formed in Jul08, is indeed a reversal candle, a significant rally would have taken place by then, perhaps taking DOW up beyond 12000 level.

any TA is only good if it is to be used in conjunction with trading/investment strategies.

now, i usually trust the TA tools i use. occasionally, i rely on candles. so far, there has been enough evidence that japanese candles do wonderfully well, in especially on long term charts. this is actually evidenced in the following 10 year monthly chart, where time and again, dojis pre-signal some form of directional change in the index.

however, since nothing is ever guaranteed, exercising caution in money management, trade executions and risks control will always be in order.

given the very clear Doji formed in Jul08, i will be hesitant to be mid term short. this is not to say, i wont trade a month long short positions, i may. but i would be sabotaging myself if my trade strategies include 3-6 months SHORT side.

given so much bearishness in current sentiments, and my unwillingness to be too Short for too extended a timeframe, perhaps, i would consider the following :

a) Selling Puts on stocks that I am willing to buy into at a specific low entry price
b) May Sell Verticals; ie credit spreads
c) Credit Ratio Spreads; perhaps even > 1:2 ratios for meaningful credit amount
d) Covered Call strategy, but only for stocks that I am willing to hold until at least Jan 09

good luck everyone and wish you Huat Huat !!!!