It is normal for Commercials to be constantly Net Short. This is because they use the futures market to hedge their profits via Sell orders. It is no wonder than when Commercials are in Net Long positions that gives a very Bullish signal. Afterall, they are deliverying their produce at a future date, and it would be very detrimental for them to be in Net Long position unless these Commercials are very confident in the bulishness of their product. These are the "insiders", whose livelihood depended on their excellent knowledge of their immediate markets. It is not often they are wrong in determining the price direction of their products.
Large Traders, are somewhat like Small Speculators, who consistently get the price direction wrong. The only difference is that they are just firms with deeper pockets but subject to emotions of trading as well. Hence, when they are most bearish, is when the market is poised for a bull run and vice versa.
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