Monday, November 24, 2008

SPX - It's Crunch Time

The trend is our friend, so says the adage commonly mouthed by traders and investors alike.

Hence, identifying a trend is an important trait that all traders must have to survive in this business.

Pricing trends are formed over time. That could be 5 mins, 30 mins, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, weeks, months, years...

The longest trending period can last for >20 or even 30 years. Such trends are called "Secular Trends". SPX, for example is in a Secular Bull Trend, since its birth ~100 years ago.

A Primary trend can last for months to years. This bear market which we are experiencing since end 2007 until now, is considered a Primary Bear Trend.

A Primary Bear Trend can exists within a Secular Bull Trend; this is known as Price Correction.... Of cos, unless, we view SPX in its entirety, it is difficult to understand that what we have been witnessing, is an index correction, rather than a secular bear trend....

See this chart below, to better realize that, for the 1st time, in the history of SP500 Index, it is challenging its own Secular Bull Trend at ~760 level.

We are living the moment where history is in the making...

Cherish this moment and survive it !!! So that one day, you and I can share this unforgettable moment with new traders, or wife/wives/mistresses/girlfriends/colleagues/children/grandchildren/adopted children/etc.

Enjoy....

SPX - 30 Years Monthly Candlestick Chart

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