Tuesday, November 18, 2008

SPX - Triple Bottom Formation

i would play the support and take on bullish option spread positions going into Dec's expiration... since VIX is relatively high at about 67, this means option premiums are comparatively "expensive". Consequently, it makes more sense to be a seller of options at this juncture.

A bullish option position can mean a Short Dec Put Spread on stocks, futures or indexes...make sure that the short option position is strongly supported by your perceived TA support price. If that fails to hold up prices in future, admit that the bet is lost and cut losses by closing out the position or at least consider damage control actions via adjustments.

Another possible play is to Sell Dec Call Spreads beyond the perceived Resistance line...this is actually a bearish position...

and when you combine both these Short Dec Call and Dec Put Spreads, one effectively opens a Iron Condor position...which then means one is epecting a range bound price action going forward 30 days or so...

I wish all of us luck on this expiration week...remember, there is a tendency for "Pinning" effect on your short option positions, so watch out for this and dont get assigned exercised unexpectedly...

how would you play this market now?


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